NFL Betting Odds
The Win Rate it takes to Profit from NFL Betting
When it comes to football betting, many novices think that they only have to win 50% odds of the time to break even. In theory, this makes sense because you're beating the other bettors half the time; and if you win more than this, you'll seemingly be earning profits. However, the truth is that you need to win a lot more than just 50% of the time and below you can see why.
Overcoming the Juice
As some people know, sportsbooks take 10% juice (a.k.a. vigorish) from the losing side as a fee for offering NFL betting lines. We're assuming that you're not a super-being who's capable of winning 100% of the time, so you will be donating juice to sportsbooks quite often.
Because of the vigorish, you not only need to beat the other wagerers, but you also have to overcome the 10% juice. In order to break even, you'd need to win 52.4% of the time to beat the vig and other bettors. Obviously it's not impossible to win 52.4% or more of your wagers; however, it's not easy either, and you need to put lots of work into the matter.
Example of a Winning Bettor
We've established how people need to win 52.4% or more odds of their NFL bets to be successful. And now it's worth discussing how much a person stands to win by beating this number.
Assuming you made 100 wagers at $10 a piece and won 53% of the time, you'd overshoot the break-even mark by 0.6%. This would give you a $6 profit after the 100 bets (0.006 x $1,000 in bets). Obviously $6 isn't going to send you into early retirement, but it's better than the average person would do over the course of 100 bets.
Now let's say that you make 100 wagers at $50 a game and won at the same rate of 53%. In this case, you'd collect a $30 profit (0.006 x $5,000), which is a little better than the $6 amount. So as you can see, the more cash you're willing to risk, the better odds and your overall profit stands to be.
Watch your Bankroll
Because you can earn extra money by wagering on more games, or placing larger bets, some people like to go for the gold right away. However, if you're not an experienced and/or successful bettor, this is the quickest way to burn through your bankroll.
So we advise a much more conservative approach in the beginning while you take time to study the subject of NFL betting. After all, you're competing against other experienced bettors, so it's important to improve your knowledge, rather than relying on luck.
In regard to an example of NFL bankroll management, let's assume that you have a $1,000 bankroll. Now it might be tempting to bet $50 a game; however, this only gives you 20 total units, which can run out pretty quickly during a losing streak. So a better idea would be to stick with $25 or (ideally) $10 bets until you develop more confidence and knowledge of betting on NFL games.
By properly managing your bankroll, you stand a much better chance of eventually beating the 52.4% mark and earning profits.